Major Emitters Submit Pledges Prior to Jan 31 Deadline

It was an interesting week on the carbon front. Earlier in the week, unsubstantiated rumors on the web emerged that India and China had reconsidered their positions and would not submit their official emission reduction pledges under the Copenhagen Accord. Both countries (China and India) met the Jan 31th deadline as did the USA, which reiterated its modest 17 percent cut from 2005 by 2020. The BASIC countries this week emphasized that these pledges were non-binding and a small part of the "two-track negotiation process," from which industrialized nations will fulfill their "differentiated" responsibility of leading the absolute reduction in global carbon emissions. Meanwhile, President Obama attempted to further his clean-energy, climate legislation agenda during his State of the Union, but did not utter the words "cap-and-trade." The senators leading the climate legislation have been quick to impress that negotiations are not dead and new/different carbon reduction and pricing structures are welcome in the discussion.

BASICs Won't Leave Their Climate Destiny in the Hands of US Senate

This week's Massachusetts midterm election was called by many as a referendum on the Obama administration's key legislative objectives, especially healthcare reform. Energy policy and carbon mitigation, including cap-and-trade or alternative mechanisms, may have also been dealt a crushing blow by Scott Brown's win in MA. One emerging potential risk is that the BASIC countries (Brazil, South Africa, India, China) will be disgruntled by the USA's lack of leadership and scale back their emissions pledges. On the contrary, the BASICs seem inclined to form a stronger climate coalition to address uniform emission reductions metrics and adaptation funding. The BASICs are more and more becoming the masters of their own climate destiny as the USA retreats to infighting.

Relevant News Articles:

• The UN Copenhagen Accord's January 31st deadline for submissions emissions targets "softened" due to poor response rates, and 2010 treaty considered anything but certain by UNFCC chief de Boer.
• Legislated US carbon regulation may be least offensive of evils (EPA regulation, unchecked litigation environment) for resistant congressmen.
• France becomes first major economy to adopt carbon tax of 17 euros per tonne, with certain exceptions.
• Australia parliament attempting to push through 2 year carbon tax to restart global progress on emissions reductions.

2 Days Until Copenhagen

The Obama Administration recently issued its statement of a good faith commitment to reduce US carbon emissions "in the range of 17%" by 2020 as compared to 2005 levels. The pessimistic can say this is far below the IPCC suggested necessary cuts of 25% - 40% cuts by 2020 for developed countries. The optimist can say that a ~17% reduction is all but to be ratified by Congress and additional cuts may still be negotiated. The statement also included expected 2025, 2030 and 2050 milestones (30%, 42% and 83%), the list of the "host of Cabinet secretaries and other top officials" now planning to attend Copenhagen and the litany of current and future US climate initiatives.

Denmark recently floated a climate treaty framework in these last days before Copenhagen, which called for 50% reductions in CO2 emissions by 2050 with 80% reductions to be achieved by developed countries. The Danish proposal was met with immediate opposition by China and India given the implications on their emissions and economic development as well as the proposal's lack of short-term binding reduction targets for developed countries.

Climate Financial Aid - today contributions are in hot debate, but for tomorrow this "blogger" asks are these funds for proven emissions mitigation and/or climate change adaptation projects or global/in-country technological innovation (venture = risky) investment. The climate slush fund will be a boon for many, but who? In-country employment, in-country contractors, multinationals, global technology licensors? Once cash is allocated to a country, will money be allowed to flow back out to international private industry or will protectionism prevail?

Relevant Articles

• India envoy on climate change voices his complaints and fears about current direction of climate negotiations in an op-ed.
• China's climate investment tab and potential carbon tax.
• India mirrors China with carbon intensity reduction target of 20% - 25% by 2020.

17 Days Until Copenhagen

The Obama administration is working hard to position a scaled-back agreement at Copenhagen as a success while keeping ensuring the US's role in the process is perceived in a positive light. The key components of an interim agreement are thought to include non-binding political commitments for emissions reductions by developed nations as well as a legitimate pledge on an international aid program for climate change combat and adaptation.

Leaders at APEC, Asia-Pacific Economic Co-operation forum, last week, officially dropped the goal of an accord for a 50% global emissions reduction by 2050 at Copenhagen. The singular goal, "a very controversial issue in the world community which could disrupt the negotiations process," was cited as the reason for the elimination by a Chinese official.

Relevant Articles

World leaders from 191 countries invited to attend Copenhagen talks. 40 confirmed, others undecided.
Deferring agreement in Copenhagen pushes climate negotiations to same feet-dragging fate of Doha trade talks, now eight years in the balance.
China and US call for actionable agreement at Copenhagen despite dim hopes of such an accord.
Russia ups emissions reduction target from 15% to 22-25% compared to 1990 levels.
• Key developed nations work on their Copenhagen emissions reductions pledges.

26 Days Until Copenhagen

While international aid transfers remains a material impasse, diplomats are quick to blame the lack of reduction targets by the US as the primary deterrent to a comprehensive agreement in Copenhagen.

A two treaty framework, a Kyoto extension and a developing country agreement, to be debated at Copenhagen.

US to seek climate management framework at Copenhagen.

Obama says he'll attend Copenhagen if his presence will be beneficial to the process.

IEA releases forecast of booming energy consumption if emissions not curbed at Copenhagen or soon after.

IEA says that one year delay in climate treaty will cost $500B, roughly a 5% increase to the 2010 to 2030 estimated required mitigation spend.

31 Days Until Copenhagen

The last global negotiations before December in Copenhagen came to a close in Barcelona with a flurry of drama but without brightening the hopes of a comprehensive accord next month. The African delegation boycotted and successfully halted the meetings on Tuesday, insisting that the 37 developed countries, addressed in the Kyoto Protocol, schedule concrete and more drastic emissions reductions targets following the Protocol's expiration in 2012. While (as of Thursday) emissions reductions were not agreed, Africa managed to win 60% of meeting time committed to discuss this over others issues such as emissions regime governance. African leaders point to their continents likely perils in the face of climate change, including migration leading to strife and unrest.

Adversaries in climate negotiations are diametrically opposed over whether to maintain the division of emissions treatment for developed & developing nations under Kyoto or draft a new blanket agreement to encompass most all nations. Kyoto obligations seem to be a weak bargaining chip for those countries led by China & India. Expiring in 2012, likely less than 24 months after a international accord will reasonably be struck, Kyoto is increasingly a weak agreement, with unambitious emissions cuts, a governance framework yet to be perfected and a major participant void, the US. While China is making huge commitments in low carbon development, the US is probably reluctant to just trust the world's fastest growing and largest emitter to adhere to voluntary emissions reduction targets.

Other noteworthy articles this week:

• America can have a positive impact at Kyoto - bring money and pump the the A/C
• Are developing countries misreading Kyoto to serve their agendas?

36 Days Until Copenhagen

With Copenhagen in only a month and significant hurdles still to overcome, U.N. climate officials now acknowledge that a ratifiable deal is unattainable. Rather, delegates will be encouraged to establish common ground on four key areas - emissions cuts for developed nations, developing countries commitments, climate financial aid and a governance framework. This week in Barcelona, the final round of traveling negotiations commences; participants hope to mend the divide between industrialized and developing nations so some progress on emissions commitments and international aid can be made at the summit. With the US Congress seen as one of the major hold-up in 2009, the prognosis for 2010 ("The Road to Mexico") may not be brighter as one-third of the Senate focuses on their re-election campaign reputations and efforts. Climate negotiations in the coming weeks and year will be America's opportunity to reclaim its position as the global catalyst for economic prosperity and social justice or to continue its descent from the economic, political and moral highground.