All Is Not Good in Bonn as Climate Talks Restart

The first official UN climate meeting since Copenhagen opened in Bonn, Germany, this week with tension. The US and other nations in the “select few” who crafted the Copenhagen Accord defended the agreement as a “significant milestone in [the] collective effort” to curb global warming. Critics called for a complete resetting of the negotiations process, repeatedly citing the need for “inclusiveness, transparency and legitimacy” if any trust is to be rebuilt across all participating nations. Venezuela and Bolivia have been very vocal in calling for the Copenhagen Accord to be set aside altogether.

Leaders in the debate are still focused on reaching a global treaty; however, some observers are suggesting alternative approaches to getting cooperation in solving climate change. These might include targeted actions to preserve rainforests or tying volunteer emissions reducing to access to climate funds.

The US and other western allies are attempting to punish those (Bolivia, Ecuador, Venezuela, Cuba, Nicaragua, etc) who refused to endorse the Copenhagen Accord by suspending climate aid. This is more symbolic than punitive since the level of aid at risk is rather insignificant at present.

Other Articles of Interest:

· Washington DC to host the 17 major economic powers on April 18^th & 19^th in hopes of pushing forward slow-moving climate talks, which is sure to draw criticism from those Copenhagen Accord detractors.

· US climate legislation rumored to include transport tax on refined oil for purposes of infrastructure repair and green infrastructure projects.

· Nepal looks to lead formation of Mountain Alliance Initiative for Climate Change (MAICC) for lobbying agenda in Mexico.

· Group of Muslim countries consider aggressive action on climate change, or a “green haj.”

· If emissions reductions fail or prove too expensive, should we consider geo-engineering … again?

Climate Talks to Rewind, Restart, Jumpstart; UK Has Plans.

Outgoing UN Climate Chief de Boer suggests that this November’s climate talks in Cancun, Mexico, will in effect be a second attempt at laying the groundwork that was hoped for in Copenhagen. De Boer’s envisioned timetable is for talks to restart next week in Bonn, for the first time since December, building up to a solid framework agreement in Mexico and follow through with a binding accord in 2011 in South Africa. The United Kingdom is taking the leader and proposing potential options for climate fund frameworks and a two treaty solution. Unpopular with the US, the two treaty solution involves an extension of the Kyoto Protocol, governing the previously bound countries, and a separate treaty, governing the US and most developing nations, such as China and India. Elsewhere in Europe, French UMP party’s bid to implement a carbon tax was overruled by the country’s high court, which saw too many inequalities and unfair burden on certain consumers.

Recent Carbon Articles of Interest:

· BP CEO’s says job preservation is not a good reason to support coal in US.

· Indonesia considers joining BASIC coalition.

· China and South Africa boost ties on climate front; specifics unclear besides aligned policy advocacy.

· UN suspends two carbon credit verification entities, including second largest verifier, TUEV SUED.

· Support for US Cap-and-Trade continues to wane and the EPA delays GHG permitting for power companies and industrial facilities until January 2011.

BASIC Countries Nominate for UN Climate Chief Position; China & India Coordinate Actions

Nominees for the UN climate chief post are surfacing from the BASIC countries. An emerging climate negotiations leader, South Africa, is proposing Marthinus van Schalkwyk, its minister of environmental affairs & tourism, while India is supporting its environment secretary, Vijay Sharma. Indonesia may also nominate an individual. Regardless of the outcome, the tone of negotiations will be changing with a representative of a developing nation heading the UN process.

China and India finally agreed to be listed in the Copenhagen Accord “chapeau,” or introduction, as participants in the key negotiations that produced the agreement. The countries were hesitant to sign because the agreement was not adopted by the entirety COP15 participating nations. Meanwhile, the two countries are coordinating with respect to their mutual opposition for international scrutiny of voluntary reduction actions as well as plans to cooperate on forestry, energy efficiency and renewable energy initiatives. Separately, China’s lead climate negotiator admonished the U.S. for not taking greater action to stem emissions domestically.

Relevant Global Carbon Articles

· Obama’s global trade aspirations at odds with climate plan.

· The IMF is proposing a $100B per year climate fund raising plan.

· EU finance ministers call for climate aid plan; to be discussed in Brussels meeting this week.

· EU considers upping reduction commitments to take climate leadership position; debates Kyoto expiration plan.

· U.S. and Brazil sign de-forestation agreement.

Cap-and-Trade Tapping Out? EPA Moving In; Not if Congress Can Help It.

U.S. climate legislation moved to the middle burner this week with discussions of cap-and-trade alternatives and EPA regulation. Advocates of cap-and-trade, such as Senators Graham and Lieberman, acknowledge that cap-and-trade may be “dead.” The latest alternative is targeted industry-specific emissions control measures on power companies, the transportation sector and heavy manufacturing. Meanwhile, the EPA attempted to raise the specter and likelihood of un-legislated carbon regulation by finalizing its endangerment finding, granting California’s waiver for stricter automobile emissions standards, issuing final GHG reporting requirements and proposing the mechanism by which it will impose permitting requirements on stationary sources releasing CO₂. Not to be superseded by the EPA, a group of Senators, spanning party lines and with carbon-reliant constituencies, introduced a bill to freeze the EPA’s ability to regulate GHG emissions for 2 years. Ironically, corporate America is still imploring and pleading for policy clarity and certainty.

Interesting Article(s):

· Environmental group and regulators look to strong-arm insurance industry for climate action. This is a topic I worked on at my former employer. To learn whether this article is 100% on-track, you’ll have to email or ask me.

Bali UNEP Conference Hopes to Restart Climate Talks; De Boer Resigns

Over one hundred countries were represented at this past week’s UN Environmental Protective event in Bali with the hope of rebuilding confidence in global climate negotiations. Even though many nations submitted emissions reduction pledges under the Copenhagen Accord, most observers consider the pledges insufficient to stem warming to the extent necessary and many countries are aggrieved because the UN framework for inclusive negotiations was undermined by the US and the BASIC nations. The usually pragmatic optimist, Yvo de Boer, the UN Climate Chief, warned that a climate deal was now unlikely this year at the Mexico meetings, rather an agreement in South Africa in 2011 was more likely. De Boer delivered this prediction in the same week he announced his intended resignation from the UN post; the retiring chief suggested his replacement come from a developing nation.

· UN targets Rio in 2012 for Summit on Sustainable Development for completion of “political document”, which will finalize economic and technical transfer agreements to ignite global green economy.

· Countries discuss creation of WTO-like World Environmental Organization (WEO).

· Emissions by heavy industry in the EU dropped by an estimated 11% in 2009.

· Kerry and Senators moving rapidly to present revised US climate bill in 2010.

A Look at Climate Activity in Europe - EU, UK and Germany

Shifting the climate focus across the Atlantic, Members of European Parliament (MEPs) passed a resolution calling on major countries, especially the US, China and EU members, to resume discussions to achieve the intentions of Copenhagen accord. This seems to be an instance of minimal influence without authority. Meanwhile, the UK is debating several energy policy options, including the centralization of energy planning, a radical change of direction from the country’s history of privatization. While a “market-light” strategy is unlikely to prevail, the US could take lesson from a debate of multiple alternatives as US lawmakers are mired in energy policy gridlock. On the continent, Germany is moving toward a delay in cuts to its solar incentives regime. While continued solar support in Germany seems unwarranted, solar job levels will be buffeted by the delay and Germany’s centrality to the solar PV industry could be prolonged.

Articles of Note

· US, India and China at stand-off regarding “association” designation within Copenhagen Accord.

· Southern Company to break ground on first US nuclear power plant in 30 years with backing of DOE loan guarantee.

· US government to create “Climate Service” organization under Commerce Department and through reorganization of NOAA.

· Opponents of California Climate Law AB 32 struggle to gather signatures required for appearing as ballot proposition to delay aggressive climate targets and actions.

Jan 31 Come and Gone ... With a Whimper

As the emissions reduction pledges under the Copenhagen Accord have trickled in prior to and since January 31st, the tally stands at 92 countries accounting for 83% of global emissions. The general malaise regarding the progress made in and since Copenhagen has continued. UN Climate Chief de Boer is trying to emphasize that the Accord was just a launching pad for for formal consensus-building negotiations incorporating the entirety of the UN community. Any accord-related news was overshadowed by the credibility crisis in the IPCC, the UN sponsored scientific research body on climate change, and its chief, Indian's R K Pachauri. Calls for Pachauri's resignation have come from several groups, including Greenpeace, after a controversy over reports regarding the rate of decay of Himalayan glaciers. Despite vocal support from de Boer and India's PM, India announced it will convene its own scientific body to analyze the risks of climate change.